速途车酷研究院
2023 China New Energy Vehicle Overseas Trend Analysis Report - Full text available at the end of the article by clicking "Read Original".
By Li Haoze | Editor: Li Haoze | Cover source: @BYD official Weibo
On January 12, Sanjay Gopalakrishnan, senior vice president of BYD India subsidiary, said in an interview that BYD hopes to capture 40% of the Indian electric vehicle market by 2030. Following the remarks, BYD's stock rose 3.09% that day, with intraday gains exceeding 5%, and its Hong Kong-listed shares rose over 9% intraday, hitting a four-month high.
The capital market's response often directly reflects confidence in a company.
Clearly, in terms of sales, supply chain completeness, and three-electric technology accumulation, BYD has reached an unprecedented height and is the leader of China's new energy vehicle industry.
BYD's overseas achievements are the most successful among all domestic Chinese brands, and its overseas expansion model is one of the few proven effective.
So today, let us examine how BYD's overseas path was forged.
01 BYD's Global Expansion Journey
Perhaps by a twist of fate, in 2003—the same year Tesla was founded—Wang Chuanfu pushed through opposition to acquire Qinchuan Automotive, entering the auto manufacturing industry. He began R&D on new energy vehicles early on, becoming a pioneer in domestic new energy.
After nearly a decade of domestic refinement, BYD's vehicles set out on the overseas path early.
In 2012, the company won an order for electric buses in the Netherlands. From there, it gained momentum: the UK, USA, Japan, Germany—all traditional automotive powerhouses introduced BYD electric buses. From 2014 to 2017, BYD ranked first globally in pure electric bus sales for four consecutive years.
Figure source: @BYD official Weibo
In addition to buses, BYD's commercial vehicle exports include airport shuttles, urban logistics, and more. Countries such as Sweden, Mexico, and the Netherlands have purchased BYD electric trucks. The company also cooperated with local governments in El Salvador, Brazil, and elsewhere to build skyrail projects, successfully expanding overseas rail transit business. To date, BYD's pure electric commercial vehicles have delivered over 85,000 units globally, with pure electric buses exceeding 70,000.
After years in the commercial vehicle sector, BYD has begun to accelerate in passenger vehicles in the past two years.
Notably in 2022, BYD's passenger car overseas push accelerated: in July, it held a brand conference in Tokyo, announcing entry into the Japanese passenger car market, launching the ATTO 3 (overseas version of Yuan PLUS), Dolphin, and Seal; on August 1 local time, it announced cooperation with Hedin Mobility, one of Europe's largest dealers, to enter Sweden and Germany; on August 8, it held a brand conference in Bangkok to enter the Thai market; on September 28, it held a European online launch for new energy passenger cars, officially entering Europe, with Han, Tang, and Yuan PLUS; on October 17, it showcased these three models at the Paris Motor Show, one of the world's top five auto shows.
Figure source: @BYD official Weibo
Starting from July 2022, BYD began separately reporting overseas passenger car sales in its monthly production and sales bulletin. From July to December, the numbers were: 4,026; 5,092; 7,736; 9,529; 12,318; and 11,320 respectively, totaling over 55,916 units for the year. Among these, the ATTO 3 became the best-selling single model in Israel in November with 2,333 units sold.
Although overseas sales still account for a small proportion of the company's total sales, it is already outstanding among domestic Chinese brands.
Figure source: @BYD official Weibo
From starting to build cars to exporting electric buses, BYD took nearly a decade; from commercial vehicle exports to passenger car exports, another decade. Over twenty years, BYD has forged an epic journey for a Chinese enterprise.
02 From Commercial to Passenger Vehicle Path
Looking at BYD's overseas journey, it is clear that the company adopted a 'business first, consumer second' strategy—first targeting B-end public transportation, then C-end passenger cars.
The reason for this route is not hard to explain: passenger car markets demand extremely high comprehensive capabilities in technology, brand, etc., and face fierce competition. Especially in brand influence, many foreign high-end cars have decades or centuries of brand heritage, which cannot be caught up by product quality alone.
Commercial vehicles, however, have lower requirements, focusing on durability. For a domestic brand like BYD, first capturing the commercial vehicle market with cost-performance advantage, gradually increasing brand acceptance through a 'rural encircles city' approach, is a wise early move.
Moreover, long-term commercial vehicle export experience has trained BYD's team and honed its sales system, laying the foundation for rapid passenger car expansion.
However, this 'B-first, C-second' strategy also has drawbacks: commercial vehicles promote the brand to some extent but can also bind it to a low-end image, creating hurdles for future high-end advancement. In China, GAC Aion is a cautionary example: it relied heavily on ride-hailing vehicles for sales, but its brand became associated with 'ride-hailing', challenging brand upgrades. BYD now faces a similar issue, which is the fundamental reason for the birth of the 'Yangwang' brand.
Figure source: @Yangwang Auto official Weibo
Moreover, for overseas sales and service channels, BYD often adopts an 'asset-light model', cooperating with local dealers. While convenient for rapid expansion and lower investment, it requires profit sharing and is detrimental to brand building.
In short, in the commercial vehicle arena, cost-performance advantage can win; but for passenger cars, longer-term considerations of brand building, sales networks, etc., are necessary, and their construction takes time—this is the biggest shortcoming of Chinese cars compared to foreign brands.
03 What's Past Is Prologue
BYD's overseas expansion is not only step-by-step but also tactically focused.
For instance, while advancing in passenger cars, BYD has not forgotten its home base—the B-end market. In October 2022, it secured a major order from Germany's largest car rental company, Sixt, to supply 100,000 electric vehicles over six years, accounting for over 40% of Sixt's current fleet. Also, BYD's ambitions go beyond product exports to multi-field布局. In September 2022, BYD signed land purchase and factory construction agreements with Thai authorities, with the Thailand factory expected to start operations in 2024. Additionally, a wholly-owned factory in India is on the agenda, and BYD has cooperated with international energy giants like Shell to deploy charging services overseas.
We can sense that compared to other brands, BYD's overseas expansion is more steady, methodical, and organized.
This undoubtedly relies on BYD's many years of technological accumulation and comprehensive supply chain layout, which are its core competitiveness. But at this point, we must pour a little cold water: in terms of technology accumulation, BYD's advantages are mainly in hardware (the three-electric system). However, as the saying goes, 'New energy vehicles: electrification is the first half, intelligence is the second half.' Intelligence fields, including autonomous driving and smart cockpits, are BYD's weakness, long criticized. How to quickly make up for this shortcoming is a major task for the company going forward.
In summary, BYD's passenger car overseas journey has just begun; whether it can replicate its success in commercial vehicles remains to be seen.
But what is certain is that at this stage, BYD represents the ceiling of Chinese independent brands.
Click to read more from the 'Overseas Column' series by Sutuo Automotive Research Institute.